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Investment strategies

Last updated November 5, 2026

This tool runs your plan invested different ways and shows what each one does: fixed mixes of stocks and bonds, a bucket, a barbell and all cash. A second tab shows what moving from one strategy to another does, starting at each age and taking one, three or five years.

Every row tests your whole plan against the same market history, so the rows differ only in how the money is invested. Each row other than your plan's own starts today and keeps the same strategy for the rest of your plan.

A fixed mix brings your savings back to that share in stocks every year. Your accounts can still differ: each one moves by the same share, the way your plan already does.

The bucket holds the next two years of what your savings will pay in cash, and the five years after that in bonds, with the rest in stocks. That's what you'll take out of savings each year: your spending and the tax on it, minus Social Security, pensions and other income. Spending comes out of the cash. After a year stocks gained, some stocks are sold to refill the cash and bonds. After a year they lost, bonds refill the cash and no stocks are sold. You can change the years under its row.

The barbell holds 80% in cash and the rest in stocks, with no bonds. All cash holds everything in cash. Cash earns what 3-month Treasury bills paid in each year of market history being replayed.

The bucket's and the barbell's cash and bonds sit in your traditional IRA or 401(k) first, then your taxable account, then your Roth, then your HSA. Trades inside a traditional, Roth or HSA account aren't taxed, so this keeps the tax on refilling as low as it can be. A 529 keeps its own mix.

"In bad years" sets how spending responds, for every row. The choice marked "(your plan)" is the one your plan uses. Spending can stay the same, or be cut after a bad year, or be cut or raised as your savings rise and fall. With the last one, if a year's withdrawal would take more than 1.2 times the share of savings your first year of retirement took, discretionary spending drops 10%. If it would take less than 0.8 times that share, discretionary spending rises 10%.

Sustainable monthly income is the most you could spend each month and still have a 90% chance your money lasts. The chance column uses the spending you entered. "Left at your planning age if markets go badly" is what's left in the worst 1 in 10 simulated retirements. "Years stocks were sold after a drop" is how many years, on average, a withdrawal sold stocks right after they fell. That's why it can show a decimal. "Average return after inflation" is the yearly return of the simulated retirement in the middle, after inflation.

Sustainable monthly income takes longer to work out, so it fills in row by row. The table stays sorted by chance until every row is in.

"Use this" saves the strategy, or the move, to your plan. You can change it again in Assumptions.