The retirement path chart
Last updated September 20, 2026
It shows the 10th, 50th and 90th percentile balance at each age across 5,000 runs. It is not one retirement followed through time.
This is the part people misread. We re-sort all 5,000 runs separately at every age, so the band at 70 and the band at 85 are built from different orderings. No single simulated retirement traces the edge of the band the whole way — a run near the top at 70 is often somewhere else entirely by 85.
Read it as a spread of outcomes, not as three possible futures. The middle line is the median balance at that age. The edges are the unlucky and lucky ends of the range — the 10th and 90th percentiles.
The dot on the left marks today's balance. The dashed vertical line marks the age you have said you will retire.
For an actual path — one run, followed year by year — use the net worth chart below it.